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SixPoint Spotlight (week 52)

December 6, 2024

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10 Min

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Emerging Market Trends

Latin America

Macroeconomics updates

Brazil: Brazil's real hit a record low against the U.S. dollar as investor concerns over President Lula's fiscal policies deepened, prompting the Central Bank of Brazil to intervene to stabilize the currency. Despite congressional approval of R$70bn ($11.3bn) in spending cuts by Finance Minister Haddad, economists warned that without stricter fiscal measures, public debt could reach unsustainable levels, risking inflation and higher interest rates. Rising government debt, at 78.6% of GDP, has further unsettled markets, with sentiment remaining pessimistic despite central bank efforts. These developments highlight the urgency for stronger fiscal discipline to maintain economic stability. Source

Argentina: Argentina's central bank sold $599 million in foreign reserves—the largest single-day sale since 2019—following the elimination of a key import tax, which spiked corporate demand for U.S. dollars. This move challenges President Javier Milei's efforts to rebuild reserves critical for lifting currency and capital controls in 2025. With international bond payments nearing $9 billion in 2025, including significant dues in January, reserve depletion raises financial stability concerns. Officials aim to adopt a more flexible peso policy if inflation slows, with potential support from new IMF agreements or private financing. These dynamics highlight the balancing act between reform and stability. Source

Mexico: Mexico's central bank may consider a rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points in February, according to Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath, marking a potential acceleration in its current easing cycle. While recent rate reductions have been limited to 25 basis points, slowing inflation could support a larger cut. However, uncertainties, including potential U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports, complicate the outlook. Analysts forecast the benchmark rate could end 2025 between 8% and 8.5%, with GDP growth at 1.12% and inflation at 3.8% by year-end. These developments emphasize the need for cautious monetary policy to ensure stability. Source

Fintech Fundraising News

Brazil: Trinus, a Brazilian fintech specializing in connecting real estate developers with capital markets, raised $7 million in a Series B extension round led by Bewater. This follows a $6.5 million investment from Headline in December 2023. The funds will support expanding Trinus’ real estate financial ecosystem, enhancing its technology platform, and pursuing M&A opportunities to grow market share. Trinus operates in over 100 cities across 25 Brazilian states, managing over R$33 billion in Gross Sales Value across 830 projects. Source

Argentina: Argentine customer journey management company Numia raised $3.5 million in an investment round led by Cometa, with participation from Boost Capital Partners, MatterScale Ventures, Kuiper VC, and Amador. Angel investors Santiago Gómez and Alejandro Casas also contributed. Founded in 2014, Numia specializes in integrating physical and digital customer interactions for sectors like banking, healthcare, and insurance. The funds will support its expansion into Mexico and Colombia, targeting over 400 corporate clients next year. Currently profitable, Numia projects $4.7-$5 million in annual recurring revenue for 2024, aiming to double this within two years. Source

Asia

Macroeconomics updates:

China: The World Bank raised its forecast for China's 2024 GDP growth to 4.9%, up from 4.8%, citing policy easing and robust exports. Despite headwinds in the property sector and weak consumer sentiment, China’s economy grew 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024. Retail sales of appliances, furniture, and automobiles rebounded, driven by a 150-billion-yuan ($20.55 billion) consumer trade-in program, while infrastructure investment surged 13% year-on-year through November. The World Bank highlighted the need for balancing short-term growth measures with structural reforms to address property sector challenges and local government finances. Source

India: India’s government has attributed the economic slowdown to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) tight monetary policy, which it claims has dampened demand. Despite GDP growth slipping to a seven-quarter low of 5.4% in July-September, the Finance Ministry expects improvement in the fiscal year’s second half, driven by rising demand and possible easing of restrictions. The RBI has kept interest rates at 6.5% for nearly two years to combat inflation, but new Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s appointment has raised expectations of a policy shift, with economists forecasting potential rate cuts by February. These developments underline the tension between inflation control and growth stimulation. Source

Financial Technology News

India: Indian fintech startup Minfiti achieved a 273% profit growth for the fiscal year 2023-2024, driven by increased user adoption and strategic partnerships. Revenue rose by 150% to $15 million, while operating expenses decreased by 20% due to cost optimization measures. The company’s active user base grew by 65%, reaching 2 million, supported by the launch of new services and enhanced user experience. Minfiti also partnered with major banks and financial institutions to expand its offerings and market reach. These milestones highlight Minfiti’s rising prominence in India’s fintech industry. Source

India: Indian fintech companies are transforming education financing by providing innovative solutions such as API-powered payment systems, streamlining fee collections and administrative tasks for educational institutions. Despite these advancements, regulatory challenges like data protection compliance and navigating financial regulations pose obstacles. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has introduced frameworks such as the Self-Regulatory Organization (SRO) to ensure transparency and consumer protection in digital lending. These measures, combined with fintech innovations, are enabling broader access to education financing, particularly in underserved Tier II and III cities, democratizing education across India. Source

Africa

Macroeconomics updates

Ghana: Ghana’s economic crisis, marked by high inflation, a depreciating cedi, unsustainable debt, and rising poverty, led to a major electoral defeat for the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP). The incoming National Democratic Congress (NDC) government faces critical challenges, including low domestic revenue, a fragile banking sector, and inefficient agriculture. The NDC plans fiscal reforms to reduce expenditures, lower taxes, and enhance transparency, alongside de-dollarization measures to stabilize the cedi. Proposals also include monetary adjustments like reducing the e-levy to promote digital payments. These strategies aim to rebuild the economy and restore stability amid public discontent. Source

Nigeria: Nigeria’s 2025 economic outlook highlights ongoing challenges, including high inflation, a depreciating naira, and unsustainable debt levels, prompting significant government reforms. Fiscal policy initiatives aim to reduce public expenditures, lower taxes, and enhance transparency to curb financial mismanagement. De-dollarization measures, such as mandating local currency use in real estate and vehicle transactions and enforcing forex trade through regulated banking channels, seek to stabilize the naira. Monetary policy adjustments, including reducing the e-levy to encourage digital payments and improving exchange rate management, are also planned. These strategies reflect efforts to rebuild economic stability and restore public confidence. Source

South Africa: South Africa’s government is tackling persistent power shortages through major infrastructure upgrades spearheaded by the Electricity Minister, aiming to stabilize the economy. The rand has strengthened recently, reflecting improved domestic confidence, while global factors such as unexpectedly low U.S. inflation and the avoidance of a government shutdown have bolstered risk sentiment, benefiting emerging markets like South Africa. These developments highlight the interplay of domestic reforms and global economic trends in shaping the country’s market outlook. Source

Fintech Fundraising News

South Africa: South African fintech Tyme Group secured $250 million in a Series D funding round, achieving a $1.5 billion valuation and unicorn status. The round was led by Brazil’s Nu Holdings, which invested $150 million, alongside contributions from M&G Catalyst Fund and existing shareholders. Tyme Group operates TymeBank in South Africa and GoTyme in the Philippines, with plans to expand into Southeast Asian markets such as Vietnam and Indonesia. The company aims to become a top-three retail bank in South Africa within three years and is considering a public listing by 2028. Source

Nigeria: Unicorns in Africa, particularly in Nigeria and Kenya, have raised over $16 billion in equity funding over the past six years, with companies like Moniepoint, Flutterwave, and Interswitch leading the charge. Nigerian startups alone secured over $3 billion since 2019, contributing to the $13 billion raised continent-wide during that period. Recent achievements include Tyme’s $250 million Series D round, pushing its valuation to $1.5 billion, and Moniepoint attaining unicorn status following its Series C funding. These milestones reflect the rising influence of African startups in the global tech ecosystem. Source

Middle East

Macroeconomics updates

UAE: The UAE Central Bank reduced its base rate for the Overnight Deposit Facility by 25 basis points to 4.65%, following a similar move by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The rate cut aligns with the dirham's peg to the U.S. dollar and aims to ensure monetary stability. Additionally, the UAE Central Bank adjusted borrowing rates for short-term liquidity through its standing credit facilities by 25 basis points. Source

Egypt: The IMF and Egypt have reached a staff-level agreement on the fourth review of Egypt’s Extended Fund Facility, potentially unlocking $1.2 billion in funding. This is part of an $8 billion, 46-month program aimed at addressing challenges including high inflation, foreign currency shortages, and reduced Suez Canal revenues. Egypt has pledged to increase its tax-to-revenue ratio by 2% of GDP over two years by removing exemptions rather than raising taxes, creating room for enhanced social spending. The government also plans to reform its tax system, ensure private-sector-led growth, and maintain a flexible exchange rate. Source

Israel: Israel's annual inflation rate fell to 3.4% in November, a four-month low but still above the government’s 1%-3% target range. The decline was driven by lower prices in fresh produce, transportation, and entertainment, offset by rising housing and food costs. Despite easing inflation, the Bank of Israel is likely to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.5% in its January meeting due to geopolitical tensions and fiscal pressures from the Hamas conflict. Policymakers have signaled no immediate rate cuts, emphasizing the need for vigilance amid regional uncertainties. Source

Financial Technology News

Israel: Private capital continues to play a pivotal role in shaping the fintech and payments industries, particularly in merchant services. While investment surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, it has stabilized to pre-2019 levels, with $16 billion in private investments across North America, Europe, and Israel projected for 2024. This trend reflects a focus on sustainable growth, prioritizing fundamentals over inflated valuations. Venture capital and private equity provide fintech companies, especially Payment Service Providers (PSPs), with critical funding for technology development, product innovation, and compliance. These investments also enable strategic market expansion to meet growing demand for digital payment solutions. Source

Fintech Fundraising News

Israel: Israeli fintech Morning was acquired by Italian software firm TeamSystem for $150 million, marking a significant expansion into the Israeli market. Morning, formerly known as "Green Invoice," provides SaaS-based invoicing and business management tools to over 150,000 small businesses in Israel. Its ownership includes co-founders Lior Wilczynski and Rami Gabai with 30% stakes each, and the Fortissimo investment fund holding 40% after a $20 million investment in 2021. This acquisition underscores the rising demand for digital financial solutions among small enterprises globally. Source

Israel: Israeli fintech startup Justt raised $30 million in a Series C funding round led by Zeev Ventures, bringing its total funding to $100 million. Justt, based in Tel Aviv, specializes in chargeback management to mitigate financial losses from errors, fraud, and disputes. The company, which serves a global clientele, recently streamlined operations by reducing its workforce from 200 to 100 employees and is targeting profitability by 2027. This funding highlights the increasing demand for innovative solutions in financial dispute management. Source

Chart of the Week

Recommended Long Reads

  • Industry spotlight: Fintech fundraising is trending up in 2024.  Source

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