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SixPoint Spotlight (week 1)

January 1, 2025

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10 Min

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Emerging Market Trends

Latin America

Macroeconomics updates

Brazil: Brazil’s President Lula has appointed Gabriel Galipolo, former deputy finance minister, as the new Central Bank governor, sparking concerns over the bank's independence and future monetary policy direction. Investors are wary, given Galipolo’s economic views that occasionally conflict with free-market principles, especially as Lula’s appointees will soon hold a majority on the bank's rate-setting committee. While assurances have been given about maintaining continuity and independence, markets remain cautious amid high public debt and economic challenges. These developments underscore the uncertainty surrounding Brazil's economic stability under Lula’s administration. Source

Argentina: Argentina’s President Javier Milei has enacted aggressive austerity measures, including deep cuts to government spending, subsidies, and public sector jobs, in a bid to stabilize the economy. These policies have succeeded in reducing monthly inflation from 25.5% in December 2023 to 2.7% by October 2024. However, the reforms have led to severe social consequences, with poverty levels rising from 44% to nearly 60% of the population and unemployment increasing significantly. Critics warn that while inflation control is a positive outcome, the surge in poverty and inequality presents long-term risks to economic and social stability. Source

Mexico: Mexico’s infrastructure development is being funded through a mix of public and private investments, aimed at enhancing economic growth and connectivity. The National Infrastructure Program (PNI) includes 147 projects with a budget of MXN $859 billion (US$44 billion), primarily sourced from private sector contributions. Key projects such as the Maya Train and the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec are central to the plan, with foreign direct investment commitments totaling about US$20 billion, including US$15 billion for an LNG project. Despite significant investments, challenges such as delayed contractor payments threaten project timelines, highlighting the need for better financial management. Source

Fintech Fundraising News

Brazil: Brazil’s Agibank has been valued at $1.5 billion following a $64 million investment from Lumina Capital. The fintech company, known for offering digital banking services to underserved populations, plans to use the new capital to expand its operations and strengthen its digital platform. This investment underscores the growing investor confidence in Latin America's fintech sector, with Agibank emerging as a key player in financial inclusion. The valuation positions the bank for further growth and potential future funding rounds. Source

Asia

Macroeconomics updates:

China: China’s stock market showed resilience, posting its first annual gain since 2020 despite ongoing trade tensions and economic concerns. The CSI 300 index rose by 14.7%, and the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 12.8% in 2024, driven by supportive government measures and sector-specific growth, particularly in banking and semiconductors. However, underlying challenges remain, with slowed retail sales, falling property prices, and reduced corporate borrowing reflecting economic headwinds. Analysts anticipate further policy measures to sustain growth, as investors remain cautiously optimistic about China's economic trajectory. Source

India: India's share in global market capitalization fell to 4.2% in December 2024, despite a buoyant equity market supported by stable macroeconomic fundamentals. The Nifty50 posted a 9% return for 2024, though its December performance lagged behind other Asian markets due to turbulence in global equities. Analysts attribute the mixed performance to external factors, including foreign investment trends and global uncertainties. However, India’s long-term outlook remains positive, driven by domestic reforms and consistent investor sentiment. Source

Fintech Fundraising News

Tajikistan: Fintech Alif, based in Uzbekistan, has secured $20 million in debt funding from Accial Capital, aimed at expanding its Shariah-compliant retail finance service, Nasiya. The funds will support Alif's mission to enhance financial inclusion and promote responsible lending in Uzbekistan. This investment brings the total international funding raised by Alif for the Uzbek market to approximately $50 million in 2024, reflecting strong investor confidence in its growth and impact on the region’s financial sector. Source

Africa

Macroeconomics updates

Ghana: The outgoing Akufo-Addo government in Ghana performed better than the previous Mahama administration in 10 out of 13 key macroeconomic indicators, according to data from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Ghana. Notable improvements were seen in GDP growth, rising from 3.9% in 2016 to 7.2% in 2024, alongside enhanced agricultural and industrial growth, better budget deficit management, and increased gross international reserves. However, the Mahama government recorded lower public debt levels, average inflation, and treasury bill rates. These results highlight mixed economic outcomes and point to areas needing further improvement for sustained growth. Source

Nigeria: Nigeria’s recent economic diplomacy with Saudi Arabia, led by Finance Minister Wale Edun, has attracted $1.2 billion from the Saudi Agricultural Livestock Investment Company (SALIC) into Olam Agri Holdings. This move reflects global confidence in Nigeria’s economic reforms under President Tinubu. Edun emphasized that such investments generate direct employment for Nigerians and strengthen the economy. Broader initiatives, including a $4 trillion GDP target by 2035 from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, highlight the focus on fostering private sector investment and aligning policies with continental agendas like AfCFTA. This marks a strategic step toward economic transformation. Source

South Africa: South Africa’s upcoming release of November’s money supply and trade balance data is expected to impact market sentiment, as investors react to ongoing global economic uncertainty. The South African rand remains under pressure, and the Top-40 index fell by 0.3%. This reflects broader caution in global markets, especially in Asia, where expectations for major U.S. interest rate cuts in 2025 have diminished. Meanwhile, gold prices have risen, driven by increased central bank demand and heightened geopolitical risks. These developments highlight the potential for volatility in local markets amid shifting global economic conditions. Source

Fintech Fundraising News

South Africa: BVNK, a fintech startup founded by South Africans, has reached a valuation of R14 billion ($750 million) after raising $50 million in its latest funding round. The company, established in 2021, offers banking and payment services for crypto-native businesses, enabling transactions in both fiat and cryptocurrencies. BVNK has processed over $10 billion in annualized payments and continues to grow rapidly. Key investors in the company include Coinbase Ventures and Tiger Global. The funding will support further expansion into global markets. Source

Middle East

Macroeconomics updates

UAE: The UAE's economy is forecast to grow by 5% in 2025, driven by balanced contributions from both the oil and non-oil sectors. Despite ongoing OPEC+ production cuts, a moderate rise in oil output and favorable base effects in the first half of the year are expected to support growth. The IMF similarly projects the UAE’s GDP growth to increase from 4% in 2024 to 5.1% in 2025, highlighting the country’s strong economic fundamentals and sectoral diversification. These developments underline a positive economic outlook for the UAE. Source

Egypt: Egypt has received the first installment of a €1 billion ($1.03 billion) financial package from the European Union, intended to help meet fiscal needs for 2024/25 and maintain macroeconomic stability. This funding aligns with Egypt’s reform agenda under the IMF program. Discussions are underway for a second €4 billion tranche. Despite recent economic challenges, Egypt’s government has fulfilled financial obligations, including repaying $39 billion last year, and remains confident in its ability to manage future pressures. This support underscores the EU's commitment to its partnership with Egypt. Source

Israel: BlackRock Israel's head anticipates high inflation and macroeconomic volatility in 2025, driven by persistent global inflation, high government debt, and geopolitical uncertainties. Despite these risks, experts view the Israeli market as undervalued compared to global markets, offering investment opportunities. The conference also highlighted AI’s transformative potential, with Israeli tech expected to play a significant role in its future development. Additionally, efforts are underway to diversify support for startups beyond fintech and cybersecurity. These factors indicate both challenges and growth potential for Israel’s economy in the coming years. Source

Fintech Fundraising News

UAE: UAE-based SME lending startup CredibleX has raised $55 million in a seed round comprising both equity and debt funding. The funding was led by Further Ventures, with additional participation from Kilgour Williams Capital and Berkley Square Finance. Since its launch eight months ago, CredibleX has disbursed AED 100 million in loans, supporting over 100,000 SMEs. The startup's embedded lending model, integrated with over 35 distribution partners, aims to enhance financial access for small businesses in the UAE. The investment will be used to scale operations and expand services. Source

Egypt: Egyptian fintech ValU has raised $10 million (EGP 519.2 million) in a landmark securitization deal, marking the sixth issuance in its $312 million securitization program. The transaction was managed by EFG Hermes, with Arab African International Bank serving as trustee and registrar. ValU aims to use the proceeds to enhance financial inclusion and improve liquidity in Egypt’s consumer finance sector. The deal highlights ongoing investor confidence in ValU’s business model and its long-term growth strategy. Source

Israel: An Israeli fintech company has been acquired by an Italian firm for $150 million, signaling strong interest in Israel’s vibrant financial technology sector. The deal is expected to expand the Italian company’s offerings by integrating innovative digital solutions developed by the Israeli firm. This acquisition reflects growing cross-border collaborations in fintech and underscores the global demand for cutting-edge financial technologies emerging from Israel’s startup ecosystem. Source

Chart of the Week

Recommended Long Reads

  • Fintech Trends 2025: What Businesses Should Expect.  Source

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